Sunday, March 21, 2010

Can Johor Fall?

Well, I've got about 25 mins to try and come out with a non Parpu based posting and what better way than to call into question the common wisdom that states BN in Johor is impregnable.

Lets cut to the chase and check out this graph

The bars in red refer to DUN's based on 2008 voter demographic that is less than 60% Malay. Further interesting reading is as follows: 18 of those seats have absolute non Malay majority.Of those 18 seats, the average Chinese population is about 55%, the minimum is 36%.

The interesting distribution, in fact the major peak is at the interval between 50% - 60% Malay. The average Chinese is about 38%, the average Indian is about 7%.

Ok so what does all of this mumbo jumbo mean.

The Chinese vote is actually much less fractured than the Malay or Indian vote for that matter. If indeed the tsunami hits Johor, we can expect something like 70% of Chinese voting for Pakatan, as a minimum. (This is what happened in 2008. But in 2012, we got some new thingy called Perkasa hooray!)

The seats then look something like this

The bars in red represent areas where 70% of the Chinese vote alone accounts for greater than 35% of the total vote. So in a place like Tangkak, 70% of the Chinese vote going to Pakatan means that in the bag Pakatan has 37% of the total vote. All they need to do is get another 13%, which is highly achievable for them to take the seat.

On the other hand, places like Semarang, Sedili and Pasir Raja have a high Malay representation, so 70% of the Chinese vote still means nothing.

The black line shows where the DUN majority lies.

Lets look at it in finer detail, all areas where Pakatan has in the bag 30% of the total electorate, by virtue of taking 70% of the Chinese vote.

What do we have. The DUNs in red are virtually in the bag for Pakatan. 12 DUNs in all.
There are a further 23 Duns where Pakatan is competitive because of the Chinese vote, but still not assured of victory. But in virtually all of these DUN's Pakatan has a base of at about 30% of the vote. So they are very competitive.

If Pakatan slams the initial 12, and wins 50-50 the above middle ground duns, then we get Pakatan with 12 + 0.5*23 = 23 seats in the Johor DUN. BN will have 33 seats.

So BN still retains with a slim 10 seat majority, prone to hopping of course.

Maybe not enough to take the Government, but that is assuming the rest of the seats work towards BN. And we are completely discounting PAS or PKR making in roads into the Malay dominated areas, which you never know.

Well looking from a strict demographic view, it is certainly very easy for Pakatan to at least have 23 elected representatives in the Johor Assembly if the current polemic still continues. An absolute victory is still possible, they would just need to win an additional 5, and who knows, the Kluk Klek could deliver upsets of their own.

Bottom line:

Insert your anecdote here.


orangjohor said...


I like you, so I'll be honest, I wish Johor would fall.

Yes me, a Johorean displanted in urban KL, wishing that it would fall.

It would be the best thing to happen. Will knock some socks off UMNO, just like how they are clueless on how to retake Selangor (fat chance of that ever happening IMO).

BTW, I notice that you did not mention that PAS actually has two (2), yes 2 seats in the DUN (Sungai Abong and Maharani, both in Muar).

Oh, and previously, the Senggarang DUN was held by PAS because UMNO sent in a Wanita UMNO (aka Makcik-penuh-dengan-gelang-mas) with superb FLCE qualifications (with apologies to Dato' Sakmongkol).

She had fumbled her nomination papers, thus letting the PAS guy win by default (menang tanpa bertanding). Told you she had superb qualifications.

So thank you for the nice graphs, I bet Dr. Boo and the gang would have some use for it.

P.S. I voted for Dr. Boo during the last two elections.

Anonymous said...

Mr. OJ,
if Pakatan gets 35-40% Malay vote, UMNO is finished.


Rajakari said...


Fi-sha said...

Dear Sir

My aunt took a cab from Senai back to our hometown recently.

What started with a line or two about weather in PG, he, a malay, shared a lot of stories about politics in Johore plus some interesting history lesson on who should be the rightful ruler. In return, my aunt shared with him about YB Zahrain and his stories in PG port and Bukit Jambul Club.

Yes, a malay cab driver that could have such critical thinking with brilliant make-sense facts and one that admire YB Lim Guan Eng of PG, JB definitely bring Johore to the Opposition side if he 'turun padang' campaigning for the opposition in Chinese areas.

Plus, with all the DOs and YBs in Johore are now closely monitored by the ruler, the margin of winning by Opposition grows wider...

Can Johor Fall? Like orangjohor, yes we can!

Wenger J Khairy said...

40% of malay vote in Johor for Pakatan means that Pakatan will get 2/3s majority in DUN Johor

Parpu tu, memang tak guna said...

Yeah! Johor will fall. I think you'll need to go a bit North too: Rembau will fall, together with Negeri Sembilan. Khairy is spending too much time now trying to distance himself from Anwar Ibrahim, thinking that it'll win him support from UMNO. How silly could he get? I think he should concentrate on what he would lose. But then again, why should he care? He's got as much as he could, and come the next election, he'll make his exit. Or, by attacking Anwar Ibrahim, is he preparing himself to be leader of the opposition after the election (if he wins it, that is)? LOL! BTW, when will he lead his good friend Parpu Kari and the bunch of UMNO clowns to shout themselves coarse in front of the British Embassy, like what they did in front of the Aussie Embassy? LMAO!!

nuomali said...

"Can Johor Fall?"....

dream on dude.

i live in muar.

orangjohor said...


If this keeps happening Johor will fall for sure:

smokeball said...


I'm Johorian too..

It is not as easy as u think kawan. Well, PKR will do the same tactic again and again.. main target?rural area..hahaha... ape dah...